Malawi’s maize prices are projected to soar to K1 270 per kilogramme (kg) between October 2026 and March 2027, a situation likely to exert pressure on household incomes.
Coupled with rising prices of fertiliser, seed and transport as well as kwacha fluctuations and global market pressures, production and marketing costs will also likely be driven up.
In its July Food Security Monitor report, Agra further warns that prices could rise even higher in some markets during the period, more so with the impending El Nino weather phenomeno.
According to Agra, maize prices are expected to remain above the five-year average of K323/kg throughout the projection period despite production being higher than last year.
However, production is still expected to remain below the five-year average.
The report warns that as rural and urban households deplete their own-produced food stocks, they will increasingly depend on market purchases, exposing them to high food prices and inflation.
Reads the report: “Elevated maize prices are likely to be driven by high production costs, including expensive fertiliser and improved seed, increased transportation costs associated with fuel shortages and high fuel prices, continued depreciation of the Malawian kwacha and global market dynamics.
“..declining tobacco sales volumes and prices are reducing rural incomes and labour demand, while fuel prices, despite recent reductions, remain significantly above previous levels, contributing to higher transport and distribution costs and adding pressure to household livelihoods.”
Data from the International Food Policy Research Institute (Ifpri) shows that the price increased by eight percent in July, from K731/kg in June to K791/kg.
Fertiliser prices in some outlets have already reached about K195 000 per 50kg bag, with fears they could surpass K200 000 by the start of the farming season.
In an interview, agriculture economist Sam Katengeza said rising maize prices would particularly affect smallholder farmers who are net buyers of maize and depend on markets for several months before the next harvest.
He said: “Reduced supply then pushes maize prices even higher. Rising maize prices will disproportionately affect low-income urban households and rural net buyers.”
Mwapata Institute executive director William Chadza said the projected increase would put a significant strain on low-income households.
With the current minimum wage of K157 500 per month, he said a maize price of K1 200/kg would mean that 40 percent of monthly income would be spent on maize alone.
Agriculture extension expert Leonard Chimwaza urged government to strengthen interventions to cushion consumers from rising prices.
Government has allocated K100 billion to the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) to purchase maize, while Admarc is expected to receive a total of K60 billion to buy maize and stock its markets as part of efforts to stabilise prices.
The projected price increase comes as the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee estimates that the number of food-insecure families will fall to 2.6 million during the 2026/27 consumption period, representing 14 percent of the country’s population.
Department of Disaster Management Affairs commissioner Wilson Moleni said the department would immediately start developing the 2026/27 Lean Season Food Insecurity Response Plan.
The plan is expected to be ready by the first week of September for rollout in October.
